Forecasting the impacts of future energy development on species...

Sage grouse. Image credit, Rob BennettsIt seems like a parade of studies has been coming out lately showing the negative impacts of energy development on species. We profiled research on the impacts from wind farms on birds and bats and the effects of natural gas production on mule deer.

Sure this information is interesting to know after these projects have already been built. But how can we use these findings to help us plan for future energy development?

 A new study from researchers at the Nature Conservancy, Audubon, and the University of Montana does just that. The scientists forecasted build-out scenarios for future oil and gas development across the entire US intermountain west. They then took findings from a past study on the impacts of oil and gas production on the greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and applied this information to their forecast.

Based on this approach, they estimated that future oil and gas development will cause a 7-19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the region. This is on top of an estimated 45-80% range-wide population decline that species has already experienced.

What is great about this approach is that it can be used to forecast future impacts to species from other forms of energy development as well including wind farms. It can also be used to forecast impacts based on a number of different build out scenarios. This can help planners and regulators improve future conservation and economic outcomes.

In terms of the sage grouse, this study should give federal agencies some pause - particularly those overseeing oil and gas development and species conservation.

Groups have already unsuccessfully petitioned the US Fish and Wildlife Service for listing of the sage grouse. Future population declines from energy development could force listing, which would have huge economic impacts for the region. It might make more economic and conservation sense to reduce future energy development or modify where development occurs.

--Reviewed by Rob Goldstein

Source:	PLoS ONE
Title:	Mapping oil and gas potential in the US intermountain west and estimating impacts to species
Authors:	a) Holly Copeland, b) Kevin Doherty, c) David Naugle, a) Amy Pocewicz, a) Joseph Kiesecker
	a) The Nature Conservancy, Lander, Wyoming b) National Audubon Society, Laramie, Wyoming c) University of Montana, Missoula, Montana